The Harmonised Business Confidence Index (HBCI) in Spain increases by 0.5% in the third quarter of 2018

The Harmonised Business Confidence Index (HBCI) increases by 0.5% in the third quarter of 2018 as compared with the second quarter. 22.8% of business establishments foresee a favourable quarter and 15.7% are pessimistic about the performance of their business, according to the last figures released by INE (Spanish Statistical Office).

Evolution and expectations

The Harmonised Business Confidence Index (HBCI) increased by 0.5% in the third quarter of 2018 as compared with the second quarter.

With respect to opinions regarding the coming quarter (Expectations), according to the report, of the establishments’ managers, 22.8% consider that the performance of their business during the third quarter of 2018 will be favourable, whereas 15.7% consider that it will be unfavourable. The remaining 61.5% consider that it will be normal.

The difference between the percentages of favourable and unfavourable responses, known as Expectations Balance, stood at 7.1 points for Spain as a whole, as compared with 10.7 for the previous quarter.

Opinions regarding the last quarter (Situation)

21.7% of the managers of business establishments had a favourable opinion on the performance of their business in the second quarter of 2018. In turn, 15.8% had an unfavourable opinion.

The difference between the percentages of favourable and unfavourable responses referring to the last quarter, known as Situation Balance, stood at 5.9 points. This figure worsens Expectations previously expressed for that quarter, which stood at 10.7 points.

HBCI by activity sector

Four out of the five sectors analysed showed an improvement on the confidence, as compared with the previous quarter. Construction and Transport and Accommodation registered the largest increases (2.0% and 1.5%, respectively). In turn, Industry registered the only decrease (- 0.2%).

Size of the establishments

Three out of the five sizes of establishments analysed presented an improvement on the confidence, as compared with the previous quarter. The interval Less than 10 employees registered the largest increase (1.3%) and More than 1,000 employees the greatest decrease (- 1.7%).

Results by Autonomous Communities

Business confidence increased in the third quarter of 2018 compared to the previous quarter in 11 Autonomous Communities and fell in the other six. Castilla–La Mancha (4.4%), Cantabria and Galicia (both with 2.9%) registered the largest increases. In turn, Canarias (-2.5%), Comunidad de Madrid (-1.6%) and Principado de Asturias (-1.2%) recorded the greatest decreases.

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